Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alycia Parks vs Alexandra Eala

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (79%) · Alexandra Eala at 51¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 9

Alycia Parks50¢Alexandra Eala50¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Alexandra Eala

Consensus Traders

Alexandra Eala 79%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 50.5¢

-27% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAlexandra Eala at 51%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alycia Parks50%

Alexandra Eala51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandra Eala15 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares19,493

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Alycia Parks4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,866

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Alexandra Eala — 79%Alycia Parks — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Alexandra Eala. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlexandra Eala 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrAlexandra Eala 85% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexandra Eala 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Alexandra Eala 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Alexandra Ealaavg 62.7¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$635.48	50% 4214-4180 (8394)
FL Flaznorp	Alexandra Ealaavg 81.3¢	$3.2K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	51% 23310-22121 (45431)
FY fydiCTR	Alycia Parksavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$36.22	49% 320-327 (647)
nigiri99CTR	Alycia Parksavg 18.5¢	$591.42	$1.6K	+$1.0K	46% 8209-9573 (17782)
38 38791873984189	Alexandra Ealaavg 78.3¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$796.3	48% 14300-15778 (30078)
OM omnibus-076daa	Alexandra Ealaavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$231.55	50% 20101-20430 (40531)
VeryLucky888	Alexandra Ealaavg 82¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$684.83	58% 44412-32326 (76738)
RN1	Alexandra Ealaavg 50¢	$774.36	$758.88	-$15.49	53% 58849-51154 (110003)
NO NotJumpCTR	Alycia Parksavg 50¢	$620.61	$616.81	-$3.79	43% 10008-13026 (23034)
MO mouzsynapse	Alexandra Ealaavg 55¢	$441.93	$393.72	-$48.21	40% 1103-1672 (2775)
GA Gaditima	Alexandra Ealaavg 79¢	$500	$247.5	-$147.5	48% 6875-7517 (14392)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Alexandra Ealaavg 52.2¢	$217.19	$203.69	-$13.51	51% 1707-1630 (3337)
EU Eulhunter	Alexandra Ealaavg 80.2¢	$160.5	$99	-$61.5	55% 6039-5041 (11080)
0xheavy888	Alexandra Ealaavg 82¢	$127.92	$77.22	-$50.7	56% 7578-6070 (13648)
SH shiifoo<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 72.9¢	$93.5	$62.88	-$30.62	59% 3620-2510 (6130)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 50¢	$56.49	$55.36	-$1.13	61% 13915-8928 (22843)
MR MrClaude11CTR<$100	Alycia Parksavg 49¢	$75.55	$21.89	+$1.32	52% 246-224 (470)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 82¢	$8.2	$4.9	-$3.3	52% 8419-7683 (16102)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 83¢	$4.98	$2.94	-$2.04	57% 18955-14023 (32978)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$3,012.15

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$635.48

Record

50%

4214-4180 (8394)

Flaznorp

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$3,185.51

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

23310-22121 (45431)

fydiCTR

Alycia Parks

Invested

$1,816.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$36.22

Record

49%

320-327 (647)

nigiri99CTR

Alycia Parks

Invested

$591.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

46%

8209-9573 (17782)

38791873984189

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$2,129.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$796.3

Record

48%

14300-15778 (30078)

omnibus-076daa

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$1,257.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$231.55

Record

50%

20101-20430 (40531)

VeryLucky888

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$1,701.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$684.83

Record

58%

44412-32326 (76738)

RN1

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$774.36

Value

$758.88

PnL

-$15.49

Record

53%

58849-51154 (110003)

NotJumpCTR

Alycia Parks

Invested

$620.61

Value

$616.81

PnL

-$3.79

Record

43%

10008-13026 (23034)

mouzsynapse

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$441.93

Value

$393.72

PnL

-$48.21

Record

40%

1103-1672 (2775)

Gaditima

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$500

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$147.5

Record

48%

6875-7517 (14392)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$217.19

Value

$203.69

PnL

-$13.51

Record

51%

1707-1630 (3337)

Eulhunter

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$160.5

Value

$99

PnL

-$61.5

Record

55%

6039-5041 (11080)

0xheavy888

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$127.92

Value

$77.22

PnL

-$50.7

Record

56%

7578-6070 (13648)

shiifoo<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$93.5

Value

$62.88

PnL

-$30.62

Record

59%

3620-2510 (6130)

Lilybaeum<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$56.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$1.13

Record

61%

13915-8928 (22843)

MrClaude11CTR<$100

Alycia Parks

Invested

$75.55

Value

$21.89

PnL

+$1.32

Record

52%

246-224 (470)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$8.2

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$3.3

Record

52%

8419-7683 (16102)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$4.98

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$2.04

Record

57%

18955-14023 (32978)

Research grade

Research candidateAlexandra Eala at 51%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Alexandra Eala. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlexandra Eala 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrAlexandra Eala 85% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexandra Eala 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Alexandra Eala 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandra Eala wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.