Consensus PnL -$23K · win rate 65% (282–153, n=435) · PM monthly #808 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-23.0K
Record
282W / 153L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 435 settled
Batting Avg
37.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#623
Source
PM monthly #808
Record (90 d)
118/178 · 66%
Trades
172
Markets
510
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 36 on the consensus side (94%)- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?No $41K · now 92¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $22K · now 98¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 59)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $22K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (76% of 42)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $8.1K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 51)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $6.1K · now 98¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (62% of 47)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $5.8K · now 97¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (82% of 78)
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No $4.9K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Yes $3.9K · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
422 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 63¢- College Football
+10 pts
side won 63% of 57 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +3%
- Finance
+8 pts
side won 73% of 48 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 57% of 14 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 50% of 18 at an average 68¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 11% of 57)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 42% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 63% of 132)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 86% of 190)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.