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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo00beachboy4BreakTheBanknorthdrawer
Record (consensus markets)75% (6–2, n=8)67% (43–21, n=64)45% (547–663, n=1210)59% (10851–7644, n=18495)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$6.1M$11.0M$47K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #19was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1PM monthly #158
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position100% (1 of 1 open)57% (64 of 113 open)79% (107 of 136 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—NBA −6 pts, n=93—Weather −2 pts, n=942
Settled positions, side won86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%40% of 5327 at avg 42¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢0%3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 81% of 57)56% (won 0% of 2980)
Entries 30–50¢0%30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 201)2% (won 44% of 129)
Entries 50–70¢100% (won 86% of 7)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 196)4% (won 62% of 209)
Entries 70¢ and up0%14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 109)38% (won 96% of 2009)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo00beachboy4BreakTheBanknorthdrawer
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $287KNo $146
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $77KNo $68
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $30KNo $130
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $7.7KNo $748
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $42KNo $465
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $11KNo $105
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——No $3.6KNo $165
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $167No $34