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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704 | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 80% (1016–256, n=1272) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $337K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #979 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 90% (46 of 51 open) | 48% (12 of 25 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Politics −30 pts, n=14 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 91% of 1357 at avg 71¢, ROI +5% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 60% of 149) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 85% of 162) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 93% of 192) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 63% (won 98% of 854) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704 | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $832 | — | — | No $250K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.3K | — | — | Yes $170K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | — | Eagles $2.3K | — | Commanders $32K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $300 | — | — | No $202K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $3.6K | — | Commanders $161K |