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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferrariChampions2026BreakTheBankHaradwaithRN1
Record (consensus markets)35% (3635–6656, n=10291)45% (573–710, n=1283)41% (3317–4794, n=8111)47% (13863–15370, n=29233)
Consensus PnL$3.0M$9.4M-$465K$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #541PM monthly #3PM monthly #283PM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensus80% (8 of 10 open)85% (29 of 34 open)71% (700 of 980 open)52% (14 of 27 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • MLB +3 pts n=10, ROI +20%
Weakest topic——Weather −6 pts, n=556—
Settled positions, side won—97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%39% of 3845 at avg 42¢, ROI −2%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢—11% (won 80% of 61)53% (won 3% of 2055)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢—35% (won 98% of 203)4% (won 35% of 170)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 100% of 201)5% (won 54% of 178)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 89% of 1442)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketferrariChampions2026BreakTheBankHaradwaithRN1
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $407KYes $361—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $75KNo $1.1K—
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $12KNo $373—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $1.6K——Over $1.5K
Taipei: Yosuke Watanuki vs Masamichi Imamura
opposite sides · consensus Yosuke Watanuki
Masamichi Imamura $369——Yosuke Watanuki $286
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $87KNo $59—
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $22KYes $70—
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15KYes $63—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $1.3K——Over $360
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.0KNo $176—
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro
same side · consensus Harold Mayot
Harold Mayot $73——Harold Mayot $123