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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Arman2 | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (266–177, n=443) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $418 | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #926 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 30% (3 of 10 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 62% (16 of 26 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Finance −16 pts, n=19 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 551 at avg 57¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 28% (won 8% of 156) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 55) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 67% of 75) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 48% (won 91% of 265) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Arman2 | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $433 | Commanders $161K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K |