Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpprimmSharkbettingCom
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)53% (7602–6859, n=14461)49% (1224–1251, n=2475)41% (267–388, n=655)
Consensus PnL$7.6M$4.1M$3.6M$107K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #10PM monthly #52PM monthly #905 + pinned
Sides with the consensus88% (35 of 40 open)70% (114 of 164 open)56% (5 of 9 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
  • NFL +36 pts n=31, ROI +17%
  • Soccer +19 pts n=142, ROI +18%
  • NBA +16 pts n=17, ROI +17%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −28 pts, n=15—Elections −7 pts, n=32
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%48% of 491 at avg 38¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)29% (won 11% of 403)5% (won 94% of 51)35% (won 25% of 170)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)16% (won 38% of 228)41% (won 99% of 421)40% (won 49% of 197)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)15% (won 62% of 214)49% (won 99% of 508)17% (won 68% of 85)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)40% (won 94% of 553)5% (won 100% of 47)8% (won 97% of 39)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpprimmSharkbettingCom
Cowboys vs. Colts
same side · consensus Cowboys
Colts $110KColts $91Colts $5.1K—
Jets vs. Chiefs
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
—Jets $67Chiefs $21K—
Lions vs. Dolphins
opposite sides · consensus Lions
—Dolphins $168Lions $14K—
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus No
No $651KNo $45K——