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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankclassifiedmonkeymashingkeyboardpetanimal
Record (consensus markets)97% (441–15, n=456)59% (191–132, n=323)99% (245–2, n=247)no settled market
Consensus PnL$8.4M$783K$1.4M$2.4K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #340PM monthly #10was PM monthly #283
Sides with the consensus76% (35 of 46 open)68% (19 of 28 open)80% (8 of 10 open)97% (35 of 36 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=83, ROI +49%
  • NBA +47 pts n=58, ROI +46%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=160, ROI +37%
  • NBA +50 pts n=89, ROI +49%
  • NFL +49 pts n=63, ROI +46%
  • MLB +49 pts n=36, ROI +50%
not computed yet
Weakest topic—Elections −2 pts, n=101——
Settled positions, side won95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39%51% of 334 at avg 49¢, ROI −2%100% of 240 at avg 51¢, ROI +49%—
Entries under 30¢11% (won 69% of 36)46% (won 4% of 152)3% (won 100% of 6)—
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 97% of 116)4% (won 47% of 15)31% (won 100% of 74)—
Entries 50–70¢37% (won 99% of 124)7% (won 78% of 23)66% (won 100% of 158)—
Entries 70¢ and up17% (won 100% of 56)43% (won 98% of 144)1% (won 100% of 2)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankclassifiedmonkeymashingkeyboardpetanimal
Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $13K—Under $538—
UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)
opposite sides · consensus Josh Hokit
Ciryl Gane $351—Josh Hokit $4.0K—
Bills vs. Vikings
same side · consensus Bills
Bills $529K—Bills $18K—
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
same side · consensus Bills
Bills $227K—Bills $6.1K—
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $148—Yes $2.0K