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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankhaveagooddaysainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)45% (546–663, n=1209)37% (1383–2346, n=3729)no settled market
Consensus PnL$11.2M$20K—
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #135—
Sides with the consensus71% (39 of 55 open)83% (237 of 287 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settlednot computed yet
Weakest topic—Elections −3 pts, n=555—
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%61% of 2399 at avg 63¢, ROI +1%—
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)32% (won 1% of 760)—
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)4% (won 42% of 101)—
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)7% (won 63% of 156)—
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)58% (won 96% of 1382)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankhaveagooddaysainttroplay
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $21KNo $442—
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $15KNo $32—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $11KNo $20—
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.7KNo $28—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.2KNo $269—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $84No $618—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $259No $283—
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $19KNo $35—
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $12KNo $74—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.4KNo $130—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $795No $242—