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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | ndb1 | quietparcel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (546–663, n=1209) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 66% (870–454, n=1324) | 44% (6093–7691, n=13784) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.2M | $5.6M | $4.2M | $34K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #12 | PM monthly #230 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (39 of 55 open) | no open consensus position | 69% (25 of 36 open) | 84% (225 of 268 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Mentions −4 pts, n=594 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 36% of 5067 at avg 39¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 60% (won 1% of 3032) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 2% (won 35% of 106) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 4% (won 60% of 183) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 34% (won 96% of 1746) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
8 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.