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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | northdrawer | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 66% (875–459, n=1334) | 59% (10800–7655, n=18455) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $4.1M | $43K | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #162 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (85 of 110 open) | 70% (30 of 43 open) | 67% (45 of 67 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Weather −2 pts, n=942 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 40% of 5327 at avg 42¢, ROI −2% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 79% of 58) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 56% (won 0% of 2980) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 200) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 2% (won 44% of 129) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 194) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 4% (won 62% of 209) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 38% (won 96% of 2009) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.