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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (414–337, n=751) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $99K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #979 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 64% (43 of 67 open) | 64% (21 of 33 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (72 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=50 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 62% of 614 at avg 53¢, ROI +9% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 35% (won 10% of 212) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 64% of 64) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 79% of 66) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 44% (won 98% of 272) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Contentious-Dinnerdate | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.1K | — | — | No $35K |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $449 | — | — | No $10K |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $130 | — | — | Yes $4.1K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $165 | — | — | Yes $73K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |