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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| MenacingTurtle | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (108–101, n=209) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 47% (13870–15347, n=29217) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $5.8M | $14.8M | $11.0M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #492 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (33 of 47 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 58% (11 of 19 open) | 86% (134 of 156 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 66% of 164 at avg 63¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 26% (won 7% of 43) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 27% of 11) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 82% of 11) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 60% (won 95% of 99) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | MenacingTurtle | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $45 | — | — | Yes $164 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | — | — | Yes $22K |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | — | — | Yes $15K |
| Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $2 | — | — | No $8.8K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $429 | — | — | Yes $2.6K |