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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (983–628, n=1611) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 50% (986–968, n=1954) |
| Consensus PnL | $91K | $3.5M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 56% (33 of 59 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (52 of 61 open) | 43% (3 of 7 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $500 | — | No $278K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | No $202K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $44K | Eagles $1.3K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | — | Yes $170K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $495 | — | Yes $81K | — |