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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (983–628, n=1611) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $91K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 56% (33 of 59 open) | 86% (54 of 63 open) | 33% (4 of 12 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $500 | No $278K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | No $202K | — | — |
| Eagles vs. Commanders same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $1.1M | Commanders $31K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | Yes $274K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | Yes $170K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $495 | Yes $81K | — | — |