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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (983–628, n=1611) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $91K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 57% (32 of 56 open) | 68% (13 of 19 open) | 85% (55 of 65 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | — | Yes $270K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | — | Yes $170K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $65 | Commanders $82K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $473 | — | Yes $81K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K | — |