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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OrwellFactory | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (329–231, n=560) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.4K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #991 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 40% (4 of 10 open) | 64% (21 of 33 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) | 60% (6 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 559 at avg 58¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 20% of 66) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 38% of 128) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 67% of 180) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 83% of 185) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OrwellFactory | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Broncos opposite sides · consensus Chiefs | — | — | Chiefs $465K | Broncos $6.8K |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $2.7K | — | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $249 | — | No $184K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |