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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Rex416 | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (2552–1759, n=4311) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $37K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #407 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (79 of 98 open) | 67% (22 of 33 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | MMA −5 pts, n=192 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 56% of 4567 at avg 56¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 28% (won 7% of 1289) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 36% of 541) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 61% of 650) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 46% (won 90% of 2087) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Rex416 | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $86 | — | — | Yes $4.7K |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $41 | — | Yes $4.2K | — |