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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| XAE12Archangel | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (362–228, n=590) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12984–14343, n=27327) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) |
| Consensus PnL | $159K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (20 of 26 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 85% (50 of 59 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −14 pts, n=25 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 83% of 958 at avg 81¢, ROI −5% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 5% of 119) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 43% of 37) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 72% of 36) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 80% (won 97% of 766) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | XAE12Archangel | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $945 | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $2.6K | — | — | No $32K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $16 | — | — | Yes $14K |