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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| askilika | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 56% (224–173, n=397) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 66% (876–458, n=1334) |
| Consensus PnL | $479K | $11.0M | $5.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #577 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #26 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 65% (74 of 114 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (28 of 39 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 369 at avg 58¢, ROI +17% | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 6% (won 33% of 21) | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 70% of 56) | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 40% of 253) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 58% (won 84% of 214) | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 310) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 90% of 78) | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 544) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.