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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
askilikaBreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)56% (224–173, n=397)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (876–458, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$479K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #577PM monthly #1PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position71% (79 of 111 open)74% (26 of 35 open)
Strongest topics
  • Tennis +30 pts n=116, ROI +23%
  • NBA +22 pts n=163, ROI +15%
  • Soccer +18 pts n=54, ROI +31%
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won80% of 365 at avg 58¢, ROI +17%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢6% (won 33% of 21)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢15% (won 70% of 56)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢58% (won 84% of 211)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up21% (won 90% of 77)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketaskilikaBreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $268KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $610K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $291KNo $73K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $39KNo $832
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183KYes $2.9M
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $55KYes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $157No $4.0K