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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| aviato | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 85% (1899–336, n=2235) | 47% (13855–15340, n=29195) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $204K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #808 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 98% (59 of 60 open) | 75% (3 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (147 of 164 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=422 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 2579 at avg 86¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 8% of 254) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 29% of 28) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 66% of 44) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 87% (won 98% of 2253) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | aviato | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $18K | — | — | No $253K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $14K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $373 | — | — | No $28K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $145 | — | — | Yes $274K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $56K | — | — | Yes $172K |