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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| aviato | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 85% (1878–321, n=2199) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $204K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #808 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 98% (49 of 50 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=423 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 2584 at avg 86¢, ROI +2% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 8% of 253) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 29% of 28) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 66% of 44) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 87% (won 98% of 2259) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | aviato | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $14K | — | Yes $77K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $45K | — | Yes $1.1K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $353 | — | No $35K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $355 | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $384 | — | No $40K | — |