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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| carlos484 | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (24–14, n=38) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $51K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #447 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (6 of 6 open) | 71% (73 of 103 open) | no open consensus position | 61% (20 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 37 at avg 66¢, ROI +15% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 0% of 5) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 0% of 4) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 16% (won 67% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 59% (won 100% of 22) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | carlos484 | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $25K | No $35K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $51K | — | Ravens $696 |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $2.1K | — | Ravens $376 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $20K | Yes $272K | — | — |