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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| elmcap2 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (1222–161, n=1383) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $5.8M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #87 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 99% (72 of 73 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 72% (79 of 109 open) | 61% (20 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=247 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 1881 at avg 90¢, ROI +1% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 11) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 33% of 81) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 61% of 179) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 86% (won 97% of 1610) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | elmcap2 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $945K | — | No $184K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $51K | Ravens $696 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $24K | Jets $284 |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $2.1K | Ravens $376 |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | — | Bills $378K | Bills $395 |
| Raiders vs. Jets same side · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $171K | Raiders $5.8K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cardinals $1.1K |