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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| failstober | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 13% (95–631, n=726) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $297K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 87% (103 of 118 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) | 64% (21 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=526 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 17% of 839 at avg 16¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 74% (won 3% of 617) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 134) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 62) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 3% (won 96% of 26) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | failstober | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | Yes $4.2K | — | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $168 | — | Yes $4.7K | — |