← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | CORGII | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (260–241, n=501) | 62% (393–246, n=639) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $910K | $4.5M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | PM monthly #68 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (55 of 105 open) | 33% (1 of 3 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics | ||||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 312 at avg 57¢, ROI +30% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 53% of 55) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 94% of 63) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 93% of 86) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 99% of 108) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | CORGII | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $51K | — | — | No $622K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.5K | — | — | No $250K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.4K | — | — | No $112K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.4K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | — | No $26K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | — | Yes $81K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | — | — | Yes $2.6K |