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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
Add:0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1surfandturf0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeabeachboy4joseph00677
| flow-trader-at-optiver | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 25% (452–1375, n=1827) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 56% (101–79, n=180) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (29 of 40 open) | 89% (143 of 160 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 3819 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 20% of 313) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 7% (won 75% of 8) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 64% of 119) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 26% (won 93% of 29) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 78% of 171) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 42% (won 96% of 47) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 84% (won 99% of 3216) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flow-trader-at-optiver | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $21 | No $250K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $5 | No $117K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $46 | No $26K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1 | Yes $15K | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $14 | Yes $14K | — |