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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| kekkone | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 76% (839–261, n=1100) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $140K | $4.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 90% (18 of 20 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Finance −3 pts, n=24 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 63% of 1327 at avg 56¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 23% (won 16% of 300) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 42% of 204) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 25% (won 73% of 337) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 37% (won 94% of 486) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | kekkone | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $5.8K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.5K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.1K | — | — | No $26K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $720 | — | — | Yes $270K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | — | Yes $170K |