Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
milkteabobabeachboy4BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)67% (38–19, n=57)68% (43–20, n=63)45% (542–652, n=1194)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL-$854K$5.8M$10.6M$19.0M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #127was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus50% (13 of 26 open)100% (2 of 2 open)90% (146 of 163 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
not computed yet
Weakest topicNFL −7 pts, n=43NBA −6 pts, n=92——
Settled positions, side won64% of 53 at avg 68¢, ROI −8%57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%—
Entries under 30¢4% (won 0% of 2)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 82% of 56)—
Entries 30–50¢8% (won 75% of 4)29% (won 56% of 62)36% (won 98% of 198)—
Entries 50–70¢38% (won 55% of 20)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 191)—
Entries 70¢ and up51% (won 74% of 27)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 107)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketmilkteabobabeachboy4BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.8K—No $253K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $64K—Yes $28K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $972—Yes $69K—
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.7K—Yes $12K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $170—Yes $3.6K—
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $108—Yes $719—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $34K—No $671K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13K—Yes $172K—
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
Yes $24—Yes $32K—