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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| mountaindewd | RN1 | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 56% (290–231, n=521) | 47% (13858–15341, n=29199) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $174K | $13.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #477 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (26 of 35 open) | 67% (2 of 3 open) | no open consensus position | 91% (148 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=58 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 520 at avg 57¢, ROI +12% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 92) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 65% of 98) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 75% of 145) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 185) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | mountaindewd | RN1 | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $4.7K | — | — | No $671K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.2K | — | — | Yes $81K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $8.8K | — | — | No $28K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $3.6K | — | — | Yes $29K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.1K | — | — | No $25K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | — | Yes $274K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9.0K | — | — | Yes $172K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $161 | — | — | No $114K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $289 | — | — | Yes $2.6K |