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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| nigiri99 | surfandturf | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5854–7018, n=12872) | 54% (225–189, n=414) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 46% (131–154, n=285) |
| Consensus PnL | -$409K | $9.4M | $10.6M | $19.0M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #42 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #715 |
| Sides with the consensus | 38% (42 of 110 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Esports −2 pts, n=1324 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 |
| Settled positions, side won | 45% of 10411 at avg 46¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 16% of 2120) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 37% (won 42% of 3821) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 46% of 565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 57% of 3361) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 57% (won 51% of 766) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 79% of 1109) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% (won 100% of 4) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.