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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | CORGII | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 62% (393–246, n=639) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | -$43K | $4.5M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 84% (16 of 19 open) | 33% (1 of 3 open) | 47% (9 of 19 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | CORGII | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.1K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | — | No $26K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | — | Yes $170K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $3.6K | Commanders $161K |