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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | -$44K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (14 of 18 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 63% (20 of 32 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.0K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.7K | — | No $22K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3.4K | — | No $590 | — |