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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
primmRN1S-Workstrgparking
Record (consensus markets)50% (1248–1261, n=2509)48% (17938–19366, n=37304)75% (2542–853, n=3395)55% (835–691, n=1526)
Consensus PnL$3.6M$14.9M$3.8M$550K
Tracked asPM monthly #44PM monthly #32 + pinnedPM monthly #54PM monthly #685
Sides with the consensus40% (2 of 5 open)57% (39 of 68 open)78% (7 of 9 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Crypto −1 pts, n=46—
Settled positions, side won99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%52% of 1460 at avg 51¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2594)6% (won 14% of 145)22% (won 16% of 314)
Entries 30–50¢41% (won 99% of 421)22% (won 94% of 5704)16% (won 48% of 367)27% (won 35% of 401)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 99% of 508)35% (won 99% of 9204)23% (won 60% of 509)28% (won 62% of 410)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8622)55% (won 96% of 1235)23% (won 94% of 335)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketprimmRN1S-Workstrgparking
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $154KT1 $5
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $2.4KOver $44K—
Buccaneers vs. Bears
opposite sides · consensus Bears
Buccaneers $1.5KBears $8.1K——
Spread: Bears (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $28Buccaneers $2.8K——
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
same side · consensus T1
——T1 $863KT1 $100K
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $5.8KBears $26K——
Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 48.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $11KOver $1.0K——