Buccaneers vs. Bears

24 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (59%) · Bears at 89¢ · $555K held · ended Nov 9

Buccaneers12¢Bears88¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 59%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$555.3K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 88.5¢

+20% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

24 of 41 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers12%

Bears89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears24 traders

Total Value$430.0K

Total Shares511,351

Combined PnL+$26.1K

Buccaneers17 traders

Total Value$81.0K

Total Shares401,088

Combined PnL$-20.7K

Bears — 59%Buccaneers — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 75% · 8

Diverging

ctrBuccaneers 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Buccaneers 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Bearsavg 71¢	$129.2K	$138.3K	+$9.2K	54% 386-334 (720)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Bearsavg 71¢	$71.0K	$70.5K	-$500	50% 585-585 (1170)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Bearsavg 71¢	$50.0K	$62.3K	+$12.3K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Buccaneersavg 29¢	$60.9K	$45.2K	$-15.7K	53% 682-594 (1276)
TA takeormake	Bearsavg 85¢	$42.1K	$43.9K	+$1.7K	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Bearsavg 75.1¢	$34.8K	$39.4K	+$4.6K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 75.1¢	$22.5K	$26.5K	+$4.0K
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 11¢	$12.3K	$12.9K	+$600.68
AN Anon455	Bearsavg 75.5¢	$37.8K	$39.2K	+$1.4K	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
WA wan123CTR	Buccaneersavg 29¢	$19.3K	$19.0K	-$326.9	40% 217-325 (542)
nigiri99	Bearsavg 71¢	$14.2K	$14.3K	+$100.26	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
65 6512395314597884	Bearsavg 83.1¢	$19.6K	$14.1K	+$983.62	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Buccaneersavg 17.9¢	$18.6K	$14.0K	$-4.6K	48% 521-567 (1088)
VeryLucky888	Bearsavg 71¢	$11.4K	$10.7K	+$102.7	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
RN1	Bearsavg 86.9¢	$9.0K	$8.0K	-$934.57	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bearsavg 71¢	$5.7K	$7.0K	+$1.3K	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bearsavg 88¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$104.9	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
HE henryttok	Bearsavg 73¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	66% 203-105 (308)
DA darkumbreon88	Bearsavg 71¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$22.34	64% 2155-1193 (3348)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bearsavg 71¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$21.43	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bearsavg 76.9¢	$4.8K	$1.8K	+$367.06	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 76.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$387.97
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 12.6¢	$432.16	$394.13	-$20.91
PR primmCTR	Buccaneersavg 9.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$328.62	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
TH thebug44	Bearsavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10	36% 48-87 (135)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bearsavg 88.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.65	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
NM NM-P	Bearsavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$15.71	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
SN SnakeBall	Bearsavg 71.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$154.48	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
GC GC-P	Bearsavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$20	57% 22246-16603 (38849)

gmpm2

Bears

Invested

$129,213.76

Value

$138.3K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

54%

386-334 (720)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Bears

Invested

$70,999.92

Value

$70.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

50%

585-585 (1170)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Bears

Invested

$49,950.27

Value

$62.3K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$60,925.24

Value

$45.2K

PnL

$-15.7K

Record

53%

682-594 (1276)

takeormake

Bears

Invested

$42,136.95

Value

$43.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$34,805.86

Value

$39.4K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Both legs:

Bears$22,496.1575.1¢+$4.0K

Buccaneers$12,309.7111¢+$600.68

Anon455

Bears

Invested

$37,827.54

Value

$39.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

wan123CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$19,326.65

Value

$19.0K

PnL

-$326.9

Record

40%

217-325 (542)

nigiri99

Bears

Invested

$14,231.2

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$100.26

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

6512395314597884

Bears

Invested

$19,629.27

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$983.62

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$18,570.27

Value

$14.0K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

VeryLucky888

Bears

Invested

$11,385.08

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$102.7

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

RN1

Bears

Invested

$8,962.92

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$934.57

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bears

Invested

$5,665.27

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bears

Invested

$4,585.17

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$104.9

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

henryttok

Bears

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

66%

203-105 (308)

darkumbreon88

Bears

Invested

$3,172.66

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$22.34

Record

64%

2155-1193 (3348)

HomeRunHazard

Bears

Invested

$3,043.43

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$21.43

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$4,833.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$367.06

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Bears$1,237.3376.9¢+$387.97

Buccaneers$432.1612.6¢-$20.91

primmCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,193.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$328.62

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

thebug44

Bears

Invested

$1,419.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

36%

48-87 (135)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bears

Invested

$1,357.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.65

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

NM-P

Bears

Invested

$1,240.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.71

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

SnakeBall

Bears

Invested

$1,090.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$154.48

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

GC-P

Bears

Invested

$1,194.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

24 of 41 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 75% · 8

Diverging

ctrBuccaneers 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Buccaneers 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.