← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| qwen300.fund | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 39% (2599–4019, n=6618) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $239K | $10.6M | $4.1M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 96% (130 of 135 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics | ||||
| Weakest topic | Weather −3 pts, n=1468 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 |
| Settled positions, side won | 43% of 2980 at avg 45¢, ROI −1% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 2% of 1695) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 46% of 35) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 30% (won 57% of 63) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 70% of 27) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 41% (won 98% of 1223) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | qwen300.fund | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7 | Yes $22K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3 | Yes $10K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $5.0K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $5.0K | — | — |