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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
rebotsliafBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)24% (143–463, n=606)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$82K$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #845PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus61% (19 of 31 open)78% (42 of 54 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −1 pts, n=192—
Settled positions, side won26% of 567 at avg 24¢, ROI +1%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢61% (won 6% of 348)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢22% (won 50% of 125)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢11% (won 56% of 62)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 94% of 32)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketrebotsliafBreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.3KYes $172K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $21KYes $38K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $644No $40K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3.2KNo $35K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $25KYes $274K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $4No $202K
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.0KYes $16K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $2.2KNo $577