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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| sbimbg | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (3053–1271, n=4324) | 48% (12899–14013, n=26912) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–647, n=1184) |
| Consensus PnL | $124K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #932 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 55% (46 of 83 open) | 67% (6 of 9 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (78 of 107 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −4 pts, n=74 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 3987 at avg 72¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 18% of 452) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 50% of 294) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 68% of 682) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 64% (won 95% of 2559) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | sbimbg | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $6 | — | — | No $444K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $40 | — | — | Yes $72K |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $259 | — | — | No $607 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $789 | — | — | Yes $258K |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1 | — | — | Yes $11K |