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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| wagwanshawty | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (13–3, n=16) | 47% (13853–15337, n=29190) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $77K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #269 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 90% (27 of 30 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position | 89% (141 of 159 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 14 at avg 83¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 100% of 1) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 79% (won 100% of 11) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | wagwanshawty | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $320 | — | — | No $292K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $29K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $12K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $2.4K | — | — | Yes $33K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.3K | — | — | No $32K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.1K | — | — | Yes $30K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | — | — | Yes $274K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $12K | — | — | Yes $172K |