Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 17 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?

17 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 3.5¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 6

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 3.5¢

-93% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$55.4K

Total Shares58,161

Combined PnL+$27.4K

No17 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares65,794

Combined PnL$-28.8K

Yes — 39%No — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (23 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 48.8¢	$11.4K	$22.4K	+$11.0K	71% 42-17 (59)
morito181	Yesavg 38.2¢	$5.6K	$14.1K	+$8.4K	61% 857-552 (1409)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.6¢	$1.9K	$6.2K	+$4.3K	63% 179-106 (285)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 76.7¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	+$1.1K	60% 911-595 (1506)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 56.9¢	$18.3K	$3.5K	$-13.9K	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
shineforever	Yesavg 43.7¢	$1.4K	$3.1K	+$1.7K	58% 83-61 (144)
xxNyx	Yesavg 82.8¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	+$215.75	82% 1790-403 (2193)
DI dips.	Yesavg 89.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$75.73	47% 10345-11766 (22111)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 49¢	$12.2K	$1.1K	$-11.1K	50% 523-521 (1044)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 59¢	$351.74	$570.03	+$218.29	54% 115-97 (212)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 37¢	$113.21	$292.51	+$179.3	55% 316-263 (579)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 56.7¢	$1.4K	$236.77	$-1.3K	48% 59185-63178 (122363)
BI BiggggggggARB<$100	Noavg 16.1¢	$323.82	$231.36	-$82.71	43% 3153-4230 (7383)
└ No leg	Noavg 16.1¢	$288.76	$170.05	-$118.71
└ Yes leg	Yes	$61.31	$61.31	+$36
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 46¢	$102.36	$212.73	+$110.37	83% 81-17 (98)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 62.2¢	$2.2K	$180.86	$-1.0K	58% 45399-32894 (78293)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39¢	$61.65	$151.11	+$89.47	52% 173-158 (331)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 55¢	$600.22	$125.43	-$474.78	51% 7646-7363 (15009)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 26.7¢	$321.6	$104.6	-$189.84	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 54¢	$588.85	$103.28	-$529.87	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
ME merodCTR	Noavg 37¢	$142.02	$29.78	-$86.08	43% 3064-4124 (7188)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$18.76	$25.38	+$6.62	20% 2564-10155 (12719)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$181.01	$21.57	-$159.44	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$51.28	$3.23	-$2.63	39% 1035-1630 (2665)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR	Noavg 31.2¢	$170.9	$2.88	-$23.14	55% 4387-3591 (7978)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 28.6¢	$61.55	$1.5	-$10.9	41% 1177-1666 (2843)

btna

Yes

Invested

$11,440.69

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$5,620.01

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

61%

857-552 (1409)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,923.98

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

63%

179-106 (285)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$5,839.98

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$18,311.44

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-13.9K

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$1,402.86

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$2,032.09

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$215.75

Record

82%

1790-403 (2193)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,149.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$75.73

Record

47%

10345-11766 (22111)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$12,249.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-11.1K

Record

50%

523-521 (1044)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$351.74

Value

$570.03

PnL

+$218.29

Record

54%

115-97 (212)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$113.21

Value

$292.51

PnL

+$179.3

Record

55%

316-263 (579)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,417.33

Value

$236.77

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

59185-63178 (122363)

BiggggggggARB<$100

Invested

$323.82

Value

$231.36

PnL

-$82.71

Record

43%

3153-4230 (7383)

Both legs:

No$288.7616.1¢-$118.71

Yes$61.31—+$36

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$102.36

Value

$212.73

PnL

+$110.37

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,205.45

Value

$180.86

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

45399-32894 (78293)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$61.65

Value

$151.11

PnL

+$89.47

Record

52%

173-158 (331)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$600.22

Value

$125.43

PnL

-$474.78

Record

51%

7646-7363 (15009)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$321.6

Value

$104.6

PnL

-$189.84

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$588.85

Value

$103.28

PnL

-$529.87

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

merodCTR

Invested

$142.02

Value

$29.78

PnL

-$86.08

Record

43%

3064-4124 (7188)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$18.76

Value

$25.38

PnL

+$6.62

Record

20%

2564-10155 (12719)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$21.57

PnL

-$159.44

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$2.63

Record

39%

1035-1630 (2665)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR

Invested

$170.9

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$23.14

Record

55%

4387-3591 (7978)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$61.55

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$10.9

Record

41%

1177-1666 (2843)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (23 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2044.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

2144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.