Hersonissos 3: Adrian Andreev vs Benjamin Pietri

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Andreev (53%) · Adrian Andreev at 79¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Adrian Andreev79¢Benjamin Pietri21¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Andreev

Consensus Traders

Adrian Andreev 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$49.94

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 78.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Andreev79%

Benjamin Pietri22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Andreev8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,973

Combined PnL+$454.87

Benjamin Pietri7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares6,534

Combined PnL-$404.93

Adrian Andreev — 53%Benjamin Pietri — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Andreev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrian Andreev 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdrian Andreev 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAdrian Andreev 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Adrian Andreev 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Adrian Andreevavg 65.5¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$537.36	56% 105-81 (186)
LI Limousin	Adrian Andreevavg 84.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$111.65	24% 204-649 (853)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Benjamin Pietriavg 18.2¢	$596.01	$586.48	+$3.86	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
12xmrboltCTR	Benjamin Pietriavg 29.5¢	$844.98	$530.53	-$314.45	8% 3-35 (38)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 61¢	$623.21	$435.59	+$168.86	47% 781-864 (1645)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 61¢	$246.44	$325.22	+$146.7
└ Benjamin Pietri leg	Benjamin Pietriavg 16.9¢	$95.54	$110.37	+$22.16
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 72.6¢	$502.66	$423.01	+$35.35	35% 63-115 (178)
└ Adrian Andreev leg	Adrian Andreevavg 72.6¢	$216.93	$234.41	+$17.48
└ Benjamin Pietri leg	Benjamin Pietriavg 19.8¢	$173.41	$188.61	+$17.87
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Adrian Andreevavg 82.3¢	$139.78	$138.53	-$1.24	56% 3788-2950 (6738)
VeryLucky888	Adrian Andreevavg 65.9¢	$143.65	$80.84	+$17.69	48% 220-236 (456)
BA babybells<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 61¢	$49.45	$65.73	+$16.27	16% 70-361 (431)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Benjamin Pietriavg 18¢	$216.8	$58.5	+$43.42	17% 66-333 (399)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Benjamin Pietriavg 35.7¢	$134.18	$52.64	-$81.54	24% 205-639 (844)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 85.3¢	$46.9	$40.98	-$5.93	12% 63-460 (523)
RN1<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 81¢	$35.2	$35.42	+$0.22	58% 3751-2706 (6457)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 31.9¢	$78.91	$34.59	-$44.32	25% 209-625 (834)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 33¢	$20.84	$8.84	-$12	35% 176-320 (496)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 65.5¢	$6.55	$8.7	+$2.15	23% 149-494 (643)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 14¢	$0.98	$1.08	+$0.1	54% 1612-1363 (2975)

0xheavy888

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$1,638.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$537.36

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

Limousin

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$1,819.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$111.65

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

FlaznorpCTR

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$596.01

Value

$586.48

PnL

+$3.86

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

12xmrboltCTR

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$844.98

Value

$530.53

PnL

-$314.45

Record

3-35 (38)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$623.21

Value

$435.59

PnL

+$168.86

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$246.4461¢+$146.7

Benjamin Pietri$95.5416.9¢+$22.16

thirdt1meARB<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$502.66

Value

$423.01

PnL

+$35.35

Record

35%

63-115 (178)

Both legs:

Adrian Andreev$216.9372.6¢+$17.48

Benjamin Pietri$173.4119.8¢+$17.87

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$139.78

Value

$138.53

PnL

-$1.24

Record

56%

3788-2950 (6738)

VeryLucky888

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$143.65

Value

$80.84

PnL

+$17.69

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

babybells<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$49.45

Value

$65.73

PnL

+$16.27

Record

16%

70-361 (431)

thestingsnakeCTR

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$216.8

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$43.42

Record

17%

66-333 (399)

LightParadoxCTR

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$134.18

Value

$52.64

PnL

-$81.54

Record

24%

205-639 (844)

BillBenter2026<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$46.9

Value

$40.98

PnL

-$5.93

Record

12%

63-460 (523)

RN1<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$35.2

Value

$35.42

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

3751-2706 (6457)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$78.91

Value

$34.59

PnL

-$44.32

Record

25%

209-625 (834)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$20.84

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$12

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

ameisgoat11<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$6.55

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$2.15

Record

23%

149-494 (643)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Andreev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrian Andreev 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdrian Andreev 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAdrian Andreev 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Adrian Andreev 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Andreev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.