Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nicolas Barrientos, while the market favors Alan Magadan (78%). 3 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan

3 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Barrientos (18%) · Nicolas Barrientos at 23¢ · $88K held · ends Nov 15

Nicolas Barrientos23¢Alan Magadan77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nicolas Barrientos

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Barrientos 18%

Total Value

$87.9K

Combined PnL

$12.8K

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 22.5¢

-54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNicolas Barrientos at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Barrientos

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Alan Magadan 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Barrientos23%

Alan Magadan78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Barrientos3 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares81,879

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Alan Magadan14 traders

Total Value$50.7K

Total Shares65,605

Combined PnL+$15.7K

Nicolas Barrientos — 18%Alan Magadan — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Nicolas Barrientosavg 49¢	$40.1K	$37.2K	$-2.9K	48% 123-132 (255)
RN1	Alan Magadanavg 52.5¢	$23.6K	$34.6K	+$11.0K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
alpheclabs2	Alan Magadanavg 51.1¢	$4.3K	$6.4K	+$2.1K	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
38 38791873984189	Alan Magadanavg 53.3¢	$5.6K	$5.3K	+$2.0K	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VE Venusian	Alan Magadanavg 71.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$121.58	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
MA MadridTime	Alan Magadanavg 54.6¢	$765.84	$1.0K	+$261.42	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
GA Gaditima	Alan Magadanavg 55.5¢	$555	$580	+$25	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
TH thestingsnake	Alan Magadanavg 56¢	$336	$465.22	+$129.22	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
PA Pan9X	Alan Magadanavg 55.6¢	$210.48	$217.44	+$6.96	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VeryLucky888	Alan Magadanavg 55.2¢	$167.36	$175.94	+$8.58	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
EF efntrick	Alan Magadanavg 56.1¢	$148.17	$153.09	+$4.92	49% 3720-3945 (7665)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alan Magadanavg 50.2¢	$45.15	$69.75	+$24.6	52% 6045-5577 (11622)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alan Magadanavg 61.4¢	$47.3	$59.68	+$12.38	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Alan Magadanavg 63¢	$44.1	$53.2	+$9.1	54% 3880-3246 (7126)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alan Magadanavg 51.3¢	$16.94	$25.08	+$8.14	53% 6777-5930 (12707)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Nicolas Barrientosavg 30.7¢	$31.3	$21.93	-$9.37	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Nicolas Barrientosavg 46¢	$12.57	$6.15	-$6.42	48% 2081-2289 (4370)

robustmstCTR

Nicolas Barrientos

Invested

$40,065.45

Value

$37.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

48%

123-132 (255)

RN1

Alan Magadan

Invested

$23,637.29

Value

$34.6K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

alpheclabs2

Alan Magadan

Invested

$4,327.31

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

38791873984189

Alan Magadan

Invested

$5,585.85

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Venusian

Alan Magadan

Invested

$1,352.77

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$121.58

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

MadridTime

Alan Magadan

Invested

$765.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$261.42

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Gaditima

Alan Magadan

Invested

$555

Value

$580

PnL

+$25

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

thestingsnake

Alan Magadan

Invested

$336

Value

$465.22

PnL

+$129.22

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

Pan9X

Alan Magadan

Invested

$210.48

Value

$217.44

PnL

+$6.96

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

VeryLucky888

Alan Magadan

Invested

$167.36

Value

$175.94

PnL

+$8.58

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

efntrick

Alan Magadan

Invested

$148.17

Value

$153.09

PnL

+$4.92

Record

49%

3720-3945 (7665)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$45.15

Value

$69.75

PnL

+$24.6

Record

52%

6045-5577 (11622)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$47.3

Value

$59.68

PnL

+$12.38

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$44.1

Value

$53.2

PnL

+$9.1

Record

54%

3880-3246 (7126)

Eulhunter<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$16.94

Value

$25.08

PnL

+$8.14

Record

53%

6777-5930 (12707)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Nicolas Barrientos

Invested

$31.3

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$9.37

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nicolas Barrientos

Invested

$12.57

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$6.42

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Research grade

AvoidNicolas Barrientos at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Barrientos

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Alan Magadan 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Barrientos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.