Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cosme de Ravel, while the market favors Mattia Bellucci (95%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Cosme de Ravel

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Cosme de Ravel (73%) · Cosme de Ravel at 5.0¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 17

Mattia Bellucci95¢Cosme de Ravel5¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cosme de Ravel

Consensus Traders

Cosme de Ravel 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$33.06

Smart Money Entry

17.6¢ → 5¢

-72% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidCosme de Ravel at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cosme de Ravel

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Mattia Bellucci 95%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mattia Bellucci95%

Cosme de Ravel5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cosme de Ravel11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares20,647

Combined PnL+$98.2

Mattia Bellucci4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL-$65.14

Cosme de Ravel — 73%Mattia Bellucci — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 78.4¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$321.46	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 78.4¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$578.69
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 8.6¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$900.15
RN1CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 19.3¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$396.18	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
VE Venusian	Mattia Bellucciavg 90¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$2.58	24% 205-642 (847)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 80.3¢	$922.01	$798.67	-$123.34	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 80.3¢	$540.35	$631.23	+$90.88
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 14.2¢	$381.66	$167.44	-$214.22
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mattia Bellucciavg 90.7¢	$397.4	$394.48	-$2.92	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.1¢	$742.56	$273.42	-$444.74	24% 201-647 (848)
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.1¢	$663.56	$209.27	-$454.29
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$54.29	$64.15	+$9.55
LI LightParadox	Mattia Bellucciavg 95.3¢	$276.88	$213.05	-$63.83	24% 202-637 (839)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$210.01	$200.48	-$9.52	48% 218-232 (450)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 13.2¢	$396.63	$130.65	-$255.7	48% 767-833 (1600)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 16.5¢	$184.63	$96.99	-$87.63	25% 204-624 (828)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 95.6¢	$59.98	$59.66	-$0.32
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 16.5¢	$124.65	$37.33	-$87.32
machinelearned<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$47.89	$52.07	+$4.18	33% 287-590 (877)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 7.5¢	$73.26	$43.85	-$29.41	35% 60-113 (173)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.7¢	$79.78	$41.25	+$0.98	16% 62-332 (394)
dips.CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 5¢	$17.47	$23.23	+$5.76	42% 189-264 (453)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 22¢	$13.2	$12	-$1.2	48% 409-445 (854)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 7.4¢	$13.47	$8.2	-$5.27	52% 54-49 (103)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 5.4¢	$10.02	$6.44	-$3.57	16% 68-358 (426)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.2	+$0.1	12% 60-456 (516)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.5¢	$2.15	$2	-$0.15	23% 147-489 (636)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$4,949.34

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$321.46

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$2,750.6878.4¢+$578.69

Cosme de Ravel$2,198.658.6¢-$900.15

RN1CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2,863.34

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$396.18

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

Venusian

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$1,414.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.58

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$922.01

Value

$798.67

PnL

-$123.34

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$540.3580.3¢+$90.88

Cosme de Ravel$381.6614.2¢-$214.22

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$397.4

Value

$394.48

PnL

-$2.92

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

LimousinARB<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$742.56

Value

$273.42

PnL

-$444.74

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

Both legs:

Cosme de Ravel$663.5621.1¢-$454.29

Mattia Bellucci$54.2979¢+$9.55

LightParadox

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$276.88

Value

$213.05

PnL

-$63.83

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$210.01

Value

$200.48

PnL

-$9.52

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

38791873984189CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$396.63

Value

$130.65

PnL

-$255.7

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$184.63

Value

$96.99

PnL

-$87.63

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$59.9895.6¢-$0.32

Cosme de Ravel$124.6516.5¢-$87.32

machinelearned<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$47.89

Value

$52.07

PnL

+$4.18

Record

33%

287-590 (877)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$73.26

Value

$43.85

PnL

-$29.41

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$79.78

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$0.98

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

dips.CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$17.47

Value

$23.23

PnL

+$5.76

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12

PnL

-$1.2

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$13.47

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$5.27

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

babybellsCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$10.02

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$3.57

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

12%

60-456 (516)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

23%

147-489 (636)

Research grade

AvoidCosme de Ravel at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Cosme de Ravel

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Mattia Bellucci 95%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cosme de Ravel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1505.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

1605.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.