Monastir: Aziz Dougaz vs Alejandro Moro Canas

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Moro Canas (50%) · Alejandro Moro Canas at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 18

Aziz Dougaz3¢Alejandro Moro Canas97¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alejandro Moro Canas

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Moro Canas 50%

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$45.67

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 96.9¢

+13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Moro Canas at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aziz Dougaz3%

Alejandro Moro Canas97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Moro Canas10 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares13,525

Combined PnL+$461.13

Aziz Dougaz10 traders

Total Value$929.15

Total Shares14,600

Combined PnL-$506.8

Alejandro Moro Canas — 50%Aziz Dougaz — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Moro Canas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Moro Canas 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alejandro Moro Canas 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92.8¢	$8.0K	$8.3K	+$329.39	42% 47-64 (111)
ER Erick2307	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 90¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.46	— 8-3 (11)
FL Flaznorp	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 62.7¢	$988.12	$993.68	+$5.56	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
65 6512395314597884	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58¢	$700.66	$700.66	+$0	50% 3288-3243 (6531)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Aziz Dougazavg 8.5¢	$904.86	$506.81	-$398.05	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
LI LightParadox	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 76.2¢	$431.72	$497.91	+$70.6	30% 372-861 (1233)
MA MadridTime	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 65¢	$247.48	$308.49	+$61.01	31% 376-842 (1218)
38 38791873984189CTR	Aziz Dougazavg 9.7¢	$359.58	$200.73	+$37.2	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 90.2¢	$202.34	$196.06	-$6.28	56% 3838-3011 (6849)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 87¢	$90	$98.41	+$8.41	28% 183-466 (649)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Aziz Dougazavg 19.1¢	$190.69	$83.86	-$75.34	42% 110-149 (259)
TRCMCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 10.9¢	$41.08	$43.16	+$2.08	10% 50-427 (477)
SE sentrio<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58.1¢	$40.98	$40.89	-$0.09	37% 340-570 (910)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 10.7¢	$28.8	$31.05	+$2.25	23% 119-404 (523)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 8.7¢	$79.38	$29.66	-$47.95	24% 118-368 (486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58¢	$22.57	$22.57	+$0	48% 659-706 (1365)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 11.7¢	$30.02	$12.6	-$17.43	30% 377-862 (1239)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 10.7¢	$10.29	$11.05	+$0.77	39% 493-763 (1256)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 11.2¢	$18.51	$8.13	-$10.38	50% 97-98 (195)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Aziz Dougazavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.1	+$0.05	32% 282-611 (893)

Paul973973

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$8,000

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$329.39

Record

42%

47-64 (111)

Erick2307

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$1,342.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.46

Record

—

8-3 (11)

Flaznorp

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$988.12

Value

$993.68

PnL

+$5.56

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

6512395314597884

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$700.66

Value

$700.66

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3288-3243 (6531)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$904.86

Value

$506.81

PnL

-$398.05

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

LightParadox

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$431.72

Value

$497.91

PnL

+$70.6

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

MadridTime

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$247.48

Value

$308.49

PnL

+$61.01

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

38791873984189CTR

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$359.58

Value

$200.73

PnL

+$37.2

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$202.34

Value

$196.06

PnL

-$6.28

Record

56%

3838-3011 (6849)

pauleta23<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$90

Value

$98.41

PnL

+$8.41

Record

28%

183-466 (649)

thirdt1meCTR

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$190.69

Value

$83.86

PnL

-$75.34

Record

42%

110-149 (259)

TRCMCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$41.08

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$2.08

Record

10%

50-427 (477)

sentrio<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$40.98

Value

$40.89

PnL

-$0.09

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

babybellsCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$28.8

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$2.25

Record

23%

119-404 (523)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$79.38

Value

$29.66

PnL

-$47.95

Record

24%

118-368 (486)

Pan9X<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$22.57

Value

$22.57

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

VenusianCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$30.02

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$17.43

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$10.29

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.77

Record

39%

493-763 (1256)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$18.51

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$10.38

Record

50%

97-98 (195)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Aziz Dougaz

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Moro Canas at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Moro Canas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Moro Canas 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alejandro Moro Canas 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Moro Canas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.