Knoxville: Marcos Giron vs Maks Kasnikowski

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Marcos Giron (50%) · Marcos Giron at 78¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 16

Marcos Giron78¢Maks Kasnikowski22¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marcos Giron

Consensus Traders

Marcos Giron 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$79.5K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 77.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarcos Giron at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marcos Giron

7 of 14 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Marcos Giron78%

Maks Kasnikowski23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marcos Giron7 traders

Total Value$59.9K

Total Shares81,444

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Maks Kasnikowski7 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares50,233

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Marcos Giron — 50%Maks Kasnikowski — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Marcos Giron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarcos Giron 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMaks Kasnikowski 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaks Kasnikowski 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarcos Giron 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Marcos Giron 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Marcos Gironavg 66.9¢	$24.3K	$21.3K	$-3.1K	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
RN1	Marcos Gironavg 55.6¢	$13.7K	$16.9K	+$3.3K	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Marcos Gironavg 57.7¢	$15.2K	$16.6K	+$1.4K	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 60.5¢	$6.8K	$5.1K	$-1.7K	28% 279-704 (983)
TH thirdt1me	Marcos Gironavg 53.3¢	$3.8K	$4.5K	+$1.5K	42% 95-133 (228)
LI LimousinCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 53.4¢	$6.2K	$4.4K	$-1.9K	28% 285-731 (1016)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 48.4¢	$5.0K	$3.8K	$-1.2K	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Marcos Giron leg	Marcos Gironavg 53.8¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$686.38
└ Maks Kasnikowski leg	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 48.4¢	$3.5K	$1.6K	$-1.9K
LI LightParadoxCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 38.1¢	$7.0K	$3.3K	$-3.7K	28% 275-716 (991)
VE VenusianCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 56.2¢	$3.9K	$1.5K	$-2.3K	28% 279-730 (1009)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$461.2	-$570.76	21% 94-363 (457)
EU EulhunterCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 39¢	$353.35	$408.86	+$55.51	49% 82-85 (167)
BA babybells	Marcos Gironavg 53.8¢	$310.07	$313.47	+$76.6	21% 101-389 (490)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Marcos Gironavg 61¢	$227.37	$305.65	+$78.28	25% 114-349 (463)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 42.6¢	$245.53	$250	+$4.47	37% 403-683 (1086)
└ Maks Kasnikowski leg	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 42.6¢	$123.8	$141	+$17.2
└ Marcos Giron leg	Marcos Gironavg 57.5¢	$121.73	$109	-$12.72
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 38¢	$461.92	$244.4	-$201.14	51% 300-292 (592)
└ Maks Kasnikowski leg	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 38¢	$395.91	$177.12	-$218.37
└ Marcos Giron leg	Marcos Gironavg 61¢	$50.05	$67.28	+$17.23
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 57.8¢	$90.07	$74.84	-$15.23	18% 107-475 (582)
└ Maks Kasnikowski leg	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 57.8¢	$62.38	$54.54	-$7.84
└ Marcos Giron leg	Marcos Gironavg 67.5¢	$27.69	$20.29	-$7.4
SU suitcase6628<$100	Marcos Gironavg 53.1¢	$29.2	$35.75	+$6.55	64% 175-97 (272)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 34¢	$3.74	$1.98	-$1.76	18% 132-592 (724)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Marcos Giron

Invested

$24,312.68

Value

$21.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

RN1

Marcos Giron

Invested

$13,653.57

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Marcos Giron

Invested

$15,184.87

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

MadridTimeCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$6,796.49

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

thirdt1me

Marcos Giron

Invested

$3,806.57

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

42%

95-133 (228)

LimousinCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$6,238.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$5,031.91

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Marcos Giron$1,532.2653.8¢+$686.38

Maks Kasnikowski$3,470.0548.4¢$-1.9K

LightParadoxCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$7,025.03

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

VenusianCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$3,866.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

thestingsnakeCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$1,057.96

Value

$461.2

PnL

-$570.76

Record

21%

94-363 (457)

EulhunterCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$353.35

Value

$408.86

PnL

+$55.51

Record

49%

82-85 (167)

babybells

Marcos Giron

Invested

$310.07

Value

$313.47

PnL

+$76.6

Record

21%

101-389 (490)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Marcos Giron

Invested

$227.37

Value

$305.65

PnL

+$78.28

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$245.53

Value

$250

PnL

+$4.47

Record

37%

403-683 (1086)

Both legs:

Maks Kasnikowski$123.842.6¢+$17.2

Marcos Giron$121.7357.5¢-$12.72

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$461.92

Value

$244.4

PnL

-$201.14

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Both legs:

Maks Kasnikowski$395.9138¢-$218.37

Marcos Giron$50.0561¢+$17.23

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$90.07

Value

$74.84

PnL

-$15.23

Record

18%

107-475 (582)

Both legs:

Maks Kasnikowski$62.3857.8¢-$7.84

Marcos Giron$27.6967.5¢-$7.4

suitcase6628<$100

Marcos Giron

Invested

$29.2

Value

$35.75

PnL

+$6.55

Record

64%

175-97 (272)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$3.74

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$1.76

Record

18%

132-592 (724)

Research grade

NeutralMarcos Giron at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marcos Giron

7 of 14 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Marcos Giron. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarcos Giron 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMaks Kasnikowski 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaks Kasnikowski 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarcos Giron 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Marcos Giron 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marcos Giron wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.