Orleans: Adrien Gobat vs Daniel Altmaier

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Altmaier (28%) · Daniel Altmaier at 94¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Adrien Gobat7¢Daniel Altmaier93¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Altmaier

Consensus Traders

Daniel Altmaier 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$94.68

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 93.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Altmaier at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Altmaier

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrien Gobat7%

Daniel Altmaier94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Altmaier5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,617

Combined PnL+$144.21

Adrien Gobat13 traders

Total Value$739.66

Total Shares12,917

Combined PnL-$238.88

Daniel Altmaier — 28%Adrien Gobat — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Altmaier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDaniel Altmaier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdrien Gobat 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrien Gobat 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Adrien Gobat 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Daniel Altmaieravg 95¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$21.05	23% 19-64 (83)
38 38791873984189	Daniel Altmaieravg 85¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$152.21	47% 781-864 (1645)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Adrien Gobatavg 5.1¢	$413.68	$444.12	+$30.44	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 18¢	$661.97	$276.49	-$385.48	35% 176-320 (496)
└ Adrien Gobat leg	Adrien Gobatavg 18¢	$596.79	$198.93	-$397.86
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 79¢	$65.18	$77.56	+$12.38
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Daniel Altmaieravg 91.4¢	$129.29	$129.05	-$0.24	56% 3788-2950 (6738)
GA Gaditima<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 81.5¢	$81.51	$94.5	+$12.99	47% 66-74 (140)
RN1CTR	Adrien Gobatavg 7.8¢	$119.25	$91.77	-$27.48	58% 3751-2706 (6457)
VeryLucky888CTR	Adrien Gobatavg 18.2¢	$261.4	$86.11	-$175.29	48% 220-236 (456)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 16¢	$81.62	$28.06	-$53.56	25% 209-625 (834)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 6¢	$22.59	$20.71	-$1.88	24% 208-644 (852)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 20¢	$30.14	$18.22	-$11.92	56% 105-81 (186)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 6¢	$17.01	$15.59	-$1.42	24% 204-649 (853)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 9¢	$21.24	$14.16	-$7.08	24% 205-639 (844)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 5¢	$20	$11	+$3	35% 63-115 (178)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 5¢	$58.1	$3.86	+$7.5	16% 70-361 (431)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 7.3¢	$4.45	$3.66	-$0.79	53% 57-50 (107)
PA Pan9X<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 79¢	$1.6	$1.9	+$0.3	48% 410-447 (857)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 9¢	$1.8	$1.2	-$0.6	17% 66-333 (399)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 5¢	$1	$1.2	+$0.2	50% 1390-1407 (2797)

Paul973973

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$21.05

Record

23%

19-64 (83)

38791873984189

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$1,354.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$152.21

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$413.68

Value

$444.12

PnL

+$30.44

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$661.97

Value

$276.49

PnL

-$385.48

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

Both legs:

Adrien Gobat$596.7918¢-$397.86

Daniel Altmaier$65.1879¢+$12.38

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$129.29

Value

$129.05

PnL

-$0.24

Record

56%

3788-2950 (6738)

Gaditima<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$81.51

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$12.99

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

RN1CTR

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$119.25

Value

$91.77

PnL

-$27.48

Record

58%

3751-2706 (6457)

VeryLucky888CTR

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$261.4

Value

$86.11

PnL

-$175.29

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$81.62

Value

$28.06

PnL

-$53.56

Record

25%

209-625 (834)

VenusianCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$22.59

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$1.88

Record

24%

208-644 (852)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$30.14

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$11.92

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

LimousinCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$17.01

Value

$15.59

PnL

-$1.42

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$21.24

Value

$14.16

PnL

-$7.08

Record

24%

205-639 (844)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$20

Value

$11

PnL

+$3

Record

35%

63-115 (178)

babybellsCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$58.1

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$7.5

Record

16%

70-361 (431)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$4.45

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

57-50 (107)

Pan9X<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

410-447 (857)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

17%

66-333 (399)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Altmaier at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Altmaier

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Altmaier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDaniel Altmaier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdrien Gobat 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrien Gobat 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Adrien Gobat 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Altmaier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.