Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hiroki Moriya, while the market favors Alex Bolt (91%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroki Moriya (41%) · Hiroki Moriya at 9.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Hiroki Moriya10¢Alex Bolt90¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hiroki Moriya

Consensus Traders

Hiroki Moriya 41%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$181.24

Smart Money Entry

16.3¢ → 9.5¢

-42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHiroki Moriya at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Bolt 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hiroki Moriya10%

Alex Bolt91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hiroki Moriya7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,403

Combined PnL+$58.05

Alex Bolt10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,350

Combined PnL+$123.19

Hiroki Moriya — 41%Alex Bolt — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Hiroki Moriyaavg 27.8¢	$625.35	$669.12	+$124.36	48% 207-227 (434)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Boltavg 71.1¢	$322.06	$405.44	+$83.38	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
MA MadridTime	Alex Boltavg 85¢	$361.95	$357.47	-$4.48	24% 200-618 (818)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hiroki Moriyaavg 10¢	$200	$190	-$10	51% 3156-3056 (6212)
TH thestingsnake	Alex Boltavg 79¢	$161.8	$147.13	+$3.52	16% 60-325 (385)
TH thirdt1me	Alex Boltavg 67¢	$160.69	$144.16	+$43.94	32% 52-112 (164)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 27¢	$230.43	$144.09	-$86.34	24% 204-633 (837)
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 91¢	$103.5	$104.07	+$0.57
└ Hiroki Moriya leg	Hiroki Moriyaavg 27¢	$126.93	$40.02	-$86.91
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 9¢	$90	$95	+$5	8% 71-770 (841)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 10¢	$85.03	$82.28	-$2.74	48% 709-765 (1474)
└ Hiroki Moriya leg	Hiroki Moriyaavg 10¢	$57.9	$55.01	-$2.89
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 90¢	$27.13	$27.28	+$0.15
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 8.8¢	$75.89	$73.37	-$2.52	54% 1599-1343 (2942)
BA babybells<$100	Alex Boltavg 68¢	$57.89	$65.81	+$10.17	15% 61-356 (417)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alex Boltavg 89.7¢	$47.98	$48.49	+$0.51	53% 50-44 (94)
tradecraft<$100	Alex Boltavg 85¢	$55.25	$43.55	-$11.7	14% 93-562 (655)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hiroki Moriyaavg 22¢	$103.93	$40.15	-$63.78	24% 201-627 (828)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Alex Boltavg 76.4¢	$39.39	$37.76	-$1.63	56% 3774-2943 (6717)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 28¢	$23.86	$25.35	+$1.49	24% 200-638 (838)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 26¢	$13	$16.5	+$3.5	30% 248-574 (822)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alex Boltavg 70¢	$9.89	$9.47	-$0.42	34% 161-313 (474)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alex Boltavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.35	-$0.1	22% 134-483 (617)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$625.35

Value

$669.12

PnL

+$124.36

Record

48%

207-227 (434)

Flaznorp

Alex Bolt

Invested

$322.06

Value

$405.44

PnL

+$83.38

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

MadridTime

Alex Bolt

Invested

$361.95

Value

$357.47

PnL

-$4.48

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

6512395314597884CTR

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$200

Value

$190

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

3156-3056 (6212)

thestingsnake

Alex Bolt

Invested

$161.8

Value

$147.13

PnL

+$3.52

Record

16%

60-325 (385)

thirdt1me

Alex Bolt

Invested

$160.69

Value

$144.16

PnL

+$43.94

Record

32%

52-112 (164)

VenusianARB<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$230.43

Value

$144.09

PnL

-$86.34

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

Both legs:

Alex Bolt$103.591¢+$0.57

Hiroki Moriya$126.9327¢-$86.91

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$90

Value

$95

PnL

+$5

Record

71-770 (841)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$85.03

Value

$82.28

PnL

-$2.74

Record

48%

709-765 (1474)

Both legs:

Hiroki Moriya$57.910¢-$2.89

Alex Bolt$27.1390¢+$0.15

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$75.89

Value

$73.37

PnL

-$2.52

Record

54%

1599-1343 (2942)

babybells<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$57.89

Value

$65.81

PnL

+$10.17

Record

15%

61-356 (417)

Eulhunter<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$47.98

Value

$48.49

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

50-44 (94)

tradecraft<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$55.25

Value

$43.55

PnL

-$11.7

Record

14%

93-562 (655)

LightParadoxCTR

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$103.93

Value

$40.15

PnL

-$63.78

Record

24%

201-627 (828)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$39.39

Value

$37.76

PnL

-$1.63

Record

56%

3774-2943 (6717)

LimousinCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$23.86

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$1.49

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$13

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

30%

248-574 (822)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.42

Record

34%

161-313 (474)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.1

Record

22%

134-483 (617)

Research grade

AvoidHiroki Moriya at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Bolt 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hiroki Moriya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.