Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jurij Rodionov (86%) · Jurij Rodionov at 71¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12

Jurij Rodionov71¢Toby Samuel29¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jurij Rodionov

Consensus Traders

Jurij Rodionov 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$289.45

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 70.5¢

+19% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJurij Rodionov at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jurij Rodionov

12 of 14 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jurij Rodionov71%

Toby Samuel30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jurij Rodionov12 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares13,162

Combined PnL+$313.36

Toby Samuel2 traders

Total Value$73.41

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$23.9

Jurij Rodionov — 86%Toby Samuel — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Jurij Rodionovavg 66¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$423.45	42% 7986-11174 (19160)
RN1ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	-$815.12	53% 61338-53656 (114994)
└ Jurij Rodionov leg	Jurij Rodionovavg 65.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$22.09
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$837.21
OM omnibus-076daa	Jurij Rodionovavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$104.48	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 54.5¢	$529.99	$400.7	-$129.28	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
└ Jurij Rodionov leg	Jurij Rodionovavg 66¢	$224.4	$246.5	+$22.1
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 54.5¢	$305.59	$154.2	-$151.38
LI Limousin<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 49.2¢	$98.5	$95	-$3.5	53% 1408-1254 (2662)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 70¢	$86.17	$81.97	-$4.2	52% 774-701 (1475)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 66.8¢	$83.57	$81.28	-$2.29	52% 14477-13174 (27651)
└ Jurij Rodionov leg	Jurij Rodionovavg 66.8¢	$53.72	$53.49	-$0.23
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 36¢	$29.85	$27.79	-$2.05
TH thestingsnake<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 69.1¢	$69.09	$64.6	-$1.19	60% 4426-2966 (7392)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 38.9¢	$80.27	$56.67	-$23.59	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
PA pauleta23<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 62.7¢	$45.43	$49.65	+$4.21	66% 24251-12365 (36616)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 66¢	$19.5	$19.13	-$0.38	65% 5265-2880 (8145)
TRCM<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 68.1¢	$17.07	$16.8	-$0.28	55% 4053-3269 (7322)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 55¢	$17.05	$16.74	-$0.31	49% 4474-4672 (9146)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 70.1¢	$7.01	$6.85	-$0.16	52% 1362-1281 (2643)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 67.3¢	$3.5	$3.46	-$0.04	57% 19325-14306 (33631)
VE Venusian<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 48.2¢	$2.41	$2.33	-$0.09	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	52% 8754-7963 (16717)

ferrariChampions2026

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$4,441.39

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$423.45

Record

42%

7986-11174 (19160)

RN1ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$4,773.31

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$815.12

Record

53%

61338-53656 (114994)

Both legs:

Jurij Rodionov$2,236.3165.8¢+$22.09

Toby Samuel$2,53750¢-$837.21

omnibus-076daa

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$3,059.8

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$104.48

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$529.99

Value

$400.7

PnL

-$129.28

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

Both legs:

Jurij Rodionov$224.466¢+$22.1

Toby Samuel$305.5954.5¢-$151.38

Limousin<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$98.5

Value

$95

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

1408-1254 (2662)

1lovejump<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$86.17

Value

$81.97

PnL

-$4.2

Record

52%

774-701 (1475)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$83.57

Value

$81.28

PnL

-$2.29

Record

52%

14477-13174 (27651)

Both legs:

Jurij Rodionov$53.7266.8¢-$0.23

Toby Samuel$29.8536¢-$2.05

thestingsnake<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$69.09

Value

$64.6

PnL

-$1.19

Record

60%

4426-2966 (7392)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$80.27

Value

$56.67

PnL

-$23.59

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

pauleta23<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$45.43

Value

$49.65

PnL

+$4.21

Record

66%

24251-12365 (36616)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

65%

5265-2880 (8145)

TRCM<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$17.07

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.28

Record

55%

4053-3269 (7322)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$17.05

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

LightParadox<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$7.01

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

1362-1281 (2643)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

19325-14306 (33631)

Venusian<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8754-7963 (16717)

Research grade

NeutralJurij Rodionov at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jurij Rodionov

12 of 14 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jurij Rodionov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.