Orleans: Dalibor Svrcina vs Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Vitaliy Sachko (63%) · Vitaliy Sachko at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Dalibor Svrcina40¢Vitaliy Sachko60¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitaliy Sachko

Consensus Traders

Vitaliy Sachko 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

36.4¢ → 60¢

+65% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitaliy Sachko at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dalibor Svrcina40%

Vitaliy Sachko60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitaliy Sachko10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,805

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Dalibor Svrcina6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,071

Combined PnL-$248.03

Vitaliy Sachko — 63%Dalibor Svrcina — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$900	14% 93-563 (656)
LI Limousin	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 45¢	$995.55	$1.2K	+$210.17	24% 200-640 (840)
VE VenusianCTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 50.1¢	$1.3K	$999.41	-$268.24	24% 205-634 (839)
TH thirdt1me	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 39.7¢	$290.5	$332.35	+$41.85	33% 54-112 (166)
0xheavy888	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 36¢	$259.35	$266.56	+$7.2	55% 94-78 (172)
VeryLucky888	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 35.6¢	$254.55	$255.12	+$10.2	48% 208-228 (436)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 50.2¢	$260.83	$157.06	+$59.08	16% 60-327 (387)
TRCM	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 27¢	$98.33	$107.44	+$9.1	6% 27-410 (437)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 59.2¢	$118.1	$78.82	-$39.28	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 58.9¢	$71.62	$73.18	+$1.55	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 58.9¢	$49.7	$38.4	-$11.3
└ Vitaliy Sachko leg	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 34.4¢	$21.93	$34.78	+$12.85
SC SchruteBucks	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$640	$41.2	+$175.51	18% 107-477 (584)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 49¢	$39.92	$39.51	-$0.41	51% 3156-3056 (6212)
RN1<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 33¢	$16.42	$18.41	+$1.99	58% 3743-2698 (6441)
FL flatbarrel	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$223.84	$14.42	+$94.6	4% 15-371 (386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 56¢	$13.44	$13.56	+$0.12	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 51¢	$1.83	$2.17	+$0.34	15% 62-357 (419)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.8	-$0.06	48% 721-776 (1497)

tradecraft

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$1,280

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$900

Record

14%

93-563 (656)

Limousin

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$995.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$210.17

Record

24%

200-640 (840)

VenusianCTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1,267.65

Value

$999.41

PnL

-$268.24

Record

24%

205-634 (839)

thirdt1me

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$290.5

Value

$332.35

PnL

+$41.85

Record

33%

54-112 (166)

0xheavy888

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$259.35

Value

$266.56

PnL

+$7.2

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

VeryLucky888

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$254.55

Value

$255.12

PnL

+$10.2

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

thestingsnakeCTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$260.83

Value

$157.06

PnL

+$59.08

Record

16%

60-327 (387)

TRCM

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$98.33

Value

$107.44

PnL

+$9.1

Record

27-410 (437)

FlaznorpCTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$118.1

Value

$78.82

PnL

-$39.28

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$71.62

Value

$73.18

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

Both legs:

Dalibor Svrcina$49.758.9¢-$11.3

Vitaliy Sachko$21.9334.4¢+$12.85

SchruteBucks

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$640

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$175.51

Record

18%

107-477 (584)

6512395314597884<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.51

PnL

-$0.41

Record

51%

3156-3056 (6212)

RN1<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$1.99

Record

58%

3743-2698 (6441)

flatbarrel

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$223.84

Value

$14.42

PnL

+$94.6

Record

15-371 (386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

babybellsCTR<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1.83

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.34

Record

15%

62-357 (419)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

Research grade

NeutralVitaliy Sachko at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitaliy Sachko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.